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An algorithm has already simulated the entire World Cup. Your job is to find the places where it's wrong.
This started as my capstone for the Google Data Analytics certificate: a prediction engine built on 125 years of international football results. Every team carries an Elo rating; every match is decided by one probability formula; the whole tournament is simulated thousands of times to estimate who lifts the trophy.
The Oracle always backs the higher-rated side. You don't have to. Predict the real 2026 group stage and knockouts yourself — match it to keep pace, but call an upset it never saw and you bank Defiance points the model can't earn. Out-think the machine.
P(A beats B) = 1 / (1 + 10^((Eloᴮ − Eloᴬ)/400)). Hosts get a small home boost. Ratings: eloratings.net. This is the engine you're trying to outguess.